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[Jin San has arrived, and the textile industry is gradually picking up under the stabilization of the epidemic]
Release date:[2020/3/4] Read a total of[100]time

Although the recent impact of the new crown epidemic has been expanding and the situation in Japan, South Korea, Iran, Italy and other countries is not optimistic, from the perspective of the domestic situation, the new crown epidemic has been gradually controlled in our country. At present, the overall trend of the epidemic situation in the country is improving, and the periodic results are remarkable. In addition to Hubei Province, many other provinces have achieved zero reports of new cases for several consecutive days. As the pace of resumption of work in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain continues to accelerate, the polyester market will gradually pick up. So what is the current pace of resumption of work? After the epidemic, can market demand usher in a retaliatory rebound?


1


Summary of terminal impacts during the epidemic


The impact of the epidemic on the polyester industry chain is more in the two aspects of the suppression of terminal consumption and the delay in downstream start-ups leading to the recovery of raw material demand.


First, the terminal textile industry, as a labor-intensive industry, mostly suspends work and holidays during the Spring Festival, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom and texturing have dropped to 10% and below. According to the progress of resuming work in previous years, it can reach a 30% operating rate in about 7-10 days after resuming work, and then rise from 30% to about 70% in the next half month. However, due to the impact of the epidemic situation on the clothing market this year, and the grey fabrics were in high inventory (about 40 days) last year, since China Textile City resumed work on February 18, the weekly turnover was about 1 million meters, compared with normal conditions. Under 10 million meters, the difference is large. The load on the loom is therefore hindered. During the Spring Festival, weaving started almost zero, and less than 10% of the weaving started after two weeks of resumption.


Second, due to the slow increase in the load on the terminal loom, the demand for polyester products has been further delayed, which has led to the increase in the operating rate of polyesters later than expected. The polyester products have been in a state of no value for a long time. After the second week, some transactions started, but as of March 2, the transaction was still around 2-3%. Carrying cash flow may be difficult to cash. Polyester upstream raw materials are mostly integrated and scale-intensive production models. The upstream raw material production is less affected by the epidemic situation. The deviation between the supply side and the demand side increases the contradiction between supply and demand, resulting in an unexpected accumulation of raw material inventory. According to the current situation, the PTA social inventory in March is likely to accumulate to around 3 million tons.


3. From February to now, the market for polyester yarns has been average, and production and sales have remained light. As of March 2, polyester yarns sales were around 2-3%. Under normal circumstances, the production and sales of polyester yarns have a pulse shape. It is expected that the time to return to such a pulse shape will be about mid-March, but the focus of production and sales in the initial recovery period will be lower than in previous years.


2


Textile market recovery


As of now, two of the three major professional markets have resumed opening, but the textile business district of Zhongda is still delayed indefinitely. Due to the delay in the resumption of work in China Textile City, from January 18 to February 18, it has been closed for a long time in the past 5 years. In the Spring Festival of previous years, China Textile City generally opened on the eighth day, but this year it was postponed for 18 days to resume business. As of February 27, there were a total of 17,320 business resumed in China Textile City, with a recovery rate of 79.6%. But the recovery of trading volume is relatively slow. In the same period last year, after the 15th of the first month, the trading volume of China Textile City recovered to a level of about 10 million meters in about 18 days. In 18 years, it took a total of 17 days from the opening of the market to the restoration of 9 million meters of trading volume. Due to the resumption of work in batches this year and the implementation of flexible business after the start, the market business hours are currently tentatively set at 10: 00-16: 00 every day (the normal business hours are 7:30 am-5 pm). It may take longer to return to the normal transaction level of around 10 million meters. Judging from the increase in the volume of transactions last week and this week, it will take about one month to return to the average level of about 10 million meters if the current resumed work progresses.


The Shengze Oriental Silk Market officially opened on February 21. From the first day of market opening, the market operators meet the 80% rate of resumption of work and market resumption. Textile merchants around the world can come to purchase and negotiate, basically by the end of February Full return to work and market.


The textile business district of Zonda is still delayed for an unlimited period of time, because Zonda has 59 professional markets, nearly 23,000 merchants, and a total number of 150,000, of whom 52,000 are from Hubei. Therefore, the time for its resumption of production and production depends on how the epidemic situation in Hubei develops. However, the market also said that it can be determined according to the situation of prevention and control, and can be prepared in an orderly manner to resume work and production.


3


Recovery of booting rate of texturized weaving


From the current point of view, Taicang, Changshu, Cixi, Changxing and other regions have increased the number of resumption of bombing factories, but the resumption rate of resumption enterprises is generally dissatisfied, which is basically below 50%. The main reasons are: the low on-the-job rate of workers, insufficient supply of auxiliary paper tubes and paperboards, and the low start-up rate of weaving and printing and dyeing in the downstream. As of the 28th, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom increased to 33%, and the operating rate of comprehensive bombing increased to 21%. Except for the Spring Festival shutdown, the average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom during peak season is 70% -80%, and the off-season is also 60% -70%. The comprehensive bombing rate is generally between 80% -90% during peak season and 60% -80% during low season. . Resumption of work after the holiday in previous years has basically reached half the operating rate after the second week of resumption, and returned to the peak season average after 4 weeks. Due to the different impacts of the epidemic situation in various provinces this year, the resumption of work is gradually progressing. Judging from the current situation, the rate of increase in load of weaving and weaving in March may be further accelerated. It is expected to return to the peak season average by early April.


4


Downstream polyester recovery


The downstream polyesters are mainly restarted recently. The polyester load has risen to 64.1% from the previous 59.5%. And the load increase is expected to increase gradually.


Due to the collapse of the cost side of crude oil again, from a book perspective, the cash flow level of each category of polyester yarn is relatively high. However, due to the light transaction, the high cash flow of the book is difficult to cash. The current inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY are around 28-37 days. The inventory pressure of polyester yarn factories is relatively large, which is also the main reason why polyester factories have recently adopted price reduction promotions. An inflection point for polyester products may occur in the next two weeks.


The change in polyester load directly affects the demand for polyester raw materials: the average monthly load in February was 61% -62%, and the polyester output was around 3 million tons. As polyester units are restarted one after another, the monthly polyester output in March and April is estimated to be 3.843 million tons and 4.43 million tons, respectively. March is expected to resume work much more than in late February, and March and April are the peak seasons of previous years. It is expected that the polyester load may return to normal levels at the end of March. The process of removing polyester inventory, but the overall inventory level still cannot be digested to normal levels.


5


Future expectations


In the later period, the overseas epidemic situation continues to ferment, crude oil stocks continue to decline, and PTA and ethylene glycol are relatively slowly increased by polyester and terminal weaving loads. Next week, it will be mainly volatile, and the supply side is for For finished product inventory, the polyester filament factory will slow down its load increase speed, but domestic demand has not substantially improved at this time, and new orders in the weaving factory have been limited. In terms of foreign trade, the spread of the epidemic has made certain uncertainties in foreign trade demand in the later period. There is no obvious positive for the end. Therefore, it is expected that the polyester filament factory will still adopt a preferential shipping policy and reduce inventory in the later stage.


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