After late August, PTA prices continued to rise to 6000 yuan/ton above. On the 12th, the PTA market once again broke through the previous high. At the same time, PTA futures on the same day also appeared a rare market, the volume of turnover, the first increase in the commodity market, the net inflow of funds in the day 3.572 billion yuan.

Supported by cost and demand preference, the recent East China market PTA monthly average price of 5949 yuan/ton, the second highest price in the same period in five years.

Polyester market production and sales volume is obvious

Led by PTA, the downstream weaving market in a wait-and-see attitude is not calm. On the 12th, stimulated by the rise in raw materials, the production and sales volume of polyester market was obvious, and the average production and sales of the market recovered to near 200%.

A price to take goods, downstream buy up do not buy down psychology is still reflected incisively and vividly. The recent PTA surge has compressed the profits of polyester products a lot, and the brothers of filament, slice, bottle and polyester short manufacturers are not very good one day at a time.

From the short-term market point of view, the PTA cost support continued in September, mainly because of three points: the rate increase slowed down in the United States, major oil producers extended production cut time to support oil prices, PX destocking expectations PX market is relatively strong. At the same time, the "gold nine silver ten" demand season is coming, and it is estimated that the terminal loom opening probability will pick up, especially the demand for polyester filament will rise, which will support the PTA market.

As of September 7, the polyester filament stock was POY 10.9 days, FDY 15.2 days, DTY 25.1 days, the overall in recent years at a low level. It is estimated that from September to mid-early October, the terminal loom opening probability may rise to more than 75%, the demand for polyester filament will rise, and the polyester filament or slight inventory will be destocked, which will help the polyester factory maintain a high operating load.

From the beginning of September, terminal orders have normal seasonal growth, and the order situation has improved, but the increment is not enough, and some terminal operators are relatively cautious. According to the current polyester overhaul plan, it is estimated that polyester production in September is still high at about 5.86 million tons, and in September there are 300,000 tons of polyester bottle flake new production capacity is planned to put into operation, the peak of polyester expansion, the demand for PTA continues to increase. Overall, demand in September is still at a high level in the year, supporting the PTA market.

The PTA market may turn upside down

It is understood that PTA devices suddenly skyrocketed, there is no shortage of oil prices and downstream promotion, but the direct reason is because recently, including Yisheng Hainan, Honggang Petrochemical and other PTA devices unexpectedly fell negative, resulting in tightening of the market supply stage.

Of course, in the view of the industry, the support of cost and demand has made the market possible to reverse. As of September 12, the average price of acetic acid market in East China was 4,700 yuan/ton, up 15.57% from the beginning of September. The PX market has maintained its upward trend under its boost, and the current domestic PX factory price is 9300 yuan/ton, up 2.20% from the beginning of September.

In the downstream market, the "gold nine silver ten" demand season is coming, the terminal loom opening probability is rising, and the demand for polyester is rising, like the polyester filament stock is about POY10 days, the overall level is low in recent years, which is conducive to the polyester factory to maintain 90% high load. In addition, the Asian Games are approaching, and some polyester factories are expected to shut down for maintenance, so maintain a price mentality. Polyester prices also rose to varying degrees, of which compared with the beginning of September, polyester POY rose 1.26%, polyester FDY rose 1.86%, polyester DTY rose 1.31%, polyester staple fiber rose 2.36%.

Expectation: "Gold nine" rise, "silver ten" fall

The superposition of fundamental positive factors, can PTA rise in the traditional gold nine silver ten peak season? From the historical data of 2010-2022, the PTA seasonal index shows that the PTA market rose and then fell in September and October. According to the data of rising/falling years, there are more rising years in September, accounting for 62%, and more falling years in October, accounting for 62%. Historical data show that PTA has a high probability of "gold nine" rising and "silver ten" falling.

Overall, the cost support continued in September, downstream demand preference, weakening the impact of sufficient PTA supply, PTA market is expected to rise in September; In October, the new PTA production capacity is put into operation, the supply pressure is increased, and the demand may fall in late October, and the PTA market is expected to fall in October. It is estimated that the probability of the PTA market in September and October is consistent with the seasonal law of 2010-2022, with the "gold nine" rising and the "silver ten" falling.

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Hai'an County Qinfeng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. specializes in production and sales：polypropylene staple fiber, Polyester Staple Fiber, functional polypropylene short fiber, functional polyester staple fiber, hydrophilic polyester staple fiber,  polypropylene, PP staple fiber, polyester staple fiber.