It is said that July and August are the off-seasons of the textile market. However, what we have heard recently is not that the off-season is more bleak. On the contrary, the price of polyester filaments has increased by 100-200 yuan/ton, and PTA broke 6800 points. Ethylene glycol rose more than 10%, and PX broke through the 1000 mark.

In July, the market of polyester raw materials showed a good trend of “low seasons and not light”. PTA and ethylene glycol were stimulated by multiple benefits of cost, supply, demand and external factors. The market broke through the stalemate and the polyester raw materials were running strong. Under the circumstance, the polyester industry chain has formed a resonance effect, and now it has a collective “big carnival” from the top down. The polyester filament market has once again been covered by a wave of price hikes!

The cloth owner could not help but sigh: "The milk powder is fake milk powder, the vaccine is a fake vaccine, and the price increase is the real price increase!"

So, in the face of such a hot raw material market, what is the downstream weaving market? Has there been any change in the stock picking strategy for raw materials in the market? With this series of questions, China Silk Mall's editing and editing center went deep into the textile town of Shengze and had a face-to-face exchange with the weaving enterprises.

What is the order status of textile enterprises in the traditional off-season?

Under normal circumstances, July and August are undoubtedly the traditional off-season of the textile industry, but from the current hot market of the polyester industry chain, it can be seen that the downstream fabric market is destined to be calm. According to the research conducted by China Silk Network, 62.5% of textile companies indicated that the current order situation is better than the same period last year. Xu Bin of Wujiang City Ouyuan Textile said that the factory orders have been saturated recently and the orders have been placed at the end of October.

Manager of Wujiang Ruicai Textile Qiao believes that the order situation this year has been good. Last year, the sales volume was about 50-60 million. This year, it is estimated that it can win 80 million. However, according to the seasonal characteristics of the varieties and the differences of the enterprises themselves, 25% of the textile enterprises indicated that the current order situation was the same as that of the same period of last year. Yang Jingyi of Suzhou variety textiles said that the recent silk fabrics are in a relatively low season, so the old customers have more samples. Compared with last year, the situation is not much different.

The price of raw materials is “big carnival”, has the fabric price gone up?

In just one week, the prices of polyester filaments of various specifications have shown a skyrocketing trend. In addition to the strong support of polyester raw materials, another key support for the surge in polyester filament prices is low inventory! From the statistics, the mainstream inventory of the polyester market is definitely the low level of the year.

According to statistics from China Silk Network, the overall inventory of the polyester filament market has been around 2-11 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks fell to 2-5 days, FDY stocks were near 3-6 days, and DTY stocks were 10-17 days or so.

The rising prices of raw materials have caused many fabric manufacturers to bear the burden of cost and have issued price increases. Jin of the Hengdeli Textile Factory in Wujiang City said that the increase in raw material costs has basically reached nearly 20%.

The increase in fabrics is around 10%. Wu Zhenhao of Zhenze Fuli Silk Weaving Factory said helplessly, the raw materials rose 200-300 per day. The fabric had to rise a few hairs, and the increase was too much to sell. The polyester taffeta, the silk spinning, and the chiffon all rose by about one hair.

However, many companies have said that the price of grey fabrics is difficult to go up. Xu Bin of Ouyuan Textile said that there have been more than 1,000 specifications for raw material prices recently, but most of our factories are making orders, so prices are not going up. They are all produced at the original price.

Under the “three stops and one stop”, what is the operating rate of the weaving enterprises?

Since last year, the special rectification work on water jet loom has been in full swing. The regulations on the suspension of production and production restrictions have been introduced in various places, and the impact on the textile market can be said to be unprecedented. The remaining manufacturers will also receive notifications of limited production from time to time.

The limited production work of “opening three stops and one stop” started in late May has continued to this day, which has become the most important factor affecting market start-up at this stage. How much is the textile company affected by the “open three stop one”? Is it expected that the operating rate will change in the next month?

According to the survey, the weaving manufacturers in Shengze area are greatly affected by the environmental protection policy. Basically, most manufacturers have said that as long as the compliant looms are now full, there should be no major changes in the next month. Yang Jingyi of Suzhou Variety Textile Co., Ltd. said that the start of construction is still affected by the “open three stop one”, and it will be fully open. The next start rate will increase with the arrival of the peak season, but it is mainly based on policies. Manufacturers outside the Shengze area, such as Tonglu and Lili, were not affected by the policy. Yao Guozhong, general manager of Wujiang Henghui Fabric, said that their factory was opened in Causeway, so they would still be "opened three stops". The impact, but I think that now in the off-season of textiles, "open three stop one" may not necessarily be a bad thing, many weaving factories can use this to consume inventory, reduce the pressure on the supply under the off-season.

Will raw material prices rise in the future?

For the prediction of the future price trend of raw materials, the cloth owners have their own opinions, but everyone is paying attention to the same point - the capacity of the foreign loom in the second half of the year.

Lei Jiawei of Suzhou Shiyi Textile believes that the production capacity of the foreign loom in the second half of the year has come up, and the impact on the local grey cloth is still relatively large. Therefore, the current market environment is not clear, and the number of our weaving machines is not much, not much for the time being.囤 raw materials.

Yang Jingyi of Suzhou variety textiles believes that although the raw materials have risen strongly in the near future, the overall market of the fabrics is still in a relatively low season, so the increase is limited. However, as the foreign looms come up, the total demand for raw materials will increase, so the market outlook is expected. The raw material market is generally good.

Yao Guozhong, general manager of Wujiang Henghui cloth industry, said that the price of raw materials in the future will be up to 200-300 yuan/ton, and the price of grey fabrics will be difficult to reproduce in the second half of last year, because the market season in the first half of the year is longer than in previous years. For a long time, unless domestic distributors want large quantities of goods, foreign dealers are mostly small batches of replenishment goods, it should be difficult to hold up a good market.

This year's raw material trend is contrary to the previous year's raw material price decline in July-August, mainly because it is just the time when the foreign loom gradually came up. The demand for raw materials also led to the surge of raw materials. Quotes. Today, foreign looms produce a large number of low-end and medium-end fabrics, which are mostly used for domestic sales. The expansion of production capacity brought by the field production will be launched next year. How much impact will it have on the local market? The market still needs to wait for market verification.