In the first half of 2021, my country's economy continued to stabilize, and the domestic demand market in textile and apparel has been significantly improved, and the international market demand has also been tungry. The continuous climb of international oil prices provides strong cost support in the chemical fiber industry. The overall situation of the chemical fiber industry has maintained a good situation, and the main operation indicators appear rapidly. Outlook all year, the operation of the chemical fiber industry will still face many tests, the industry needs to accelerate the promotion of high-quality development, the "14th Five-Year Plan", play a good step.

01 Production remains stable growth

In the first half of the year, the overall starting load of the chemical fiber industry was significantly improved in the same period of 2020, and there is a factor in the 2020 episode of the same period, but it is also in high levels in the same period in recent years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, chemical fiber production is 33.37 million tons, an increase of 17.12% year-on-year. In order to avoid the incident of the high growth in the industry due to the low base of the industry, we use geometric average method (below) in the first half of 2019, and the average growth rate of chemical fiber production is 9.10%.

From the perspective of the month, with the rapid advancement of complex production in the industry in the Spring Festival, the number of chemical fiber yields rapidly increased, resulting in a year-on-year growth rate of from June to June (Figure 1).

02 cost support is obvious

Since 2021, in the context of demand recovery and inflation expectations, the commodity market has continued to strengthen. At the same time, the oil output country organizes OPEC continued to reduce production and strictly control the supply of crude oil. Therefore, the international oil prices continue to rise from January to June, and the price of WTI crude oil is about $ 50 / barrel at the beginning of the year. In June, it exceeded 70 US dollars / barrel, exceeding the oil price level before the new crown epidemic (Figure 2).

It is affected by the high price of crude oil, and the cost of chemical fiber has risen, and the price increase in chemical fiber market from June 1 to June. According to China Internet data, the price of primary product in June has different degrees of rising than the beginning of the year, but the price of the products of the industry chain will increase, and the price of chemical fiber products is generally less than its main raw materials and crude oil. (Table 1), Therefore, it can be judged that the chemical fiber market in January to June is the cost push up.

In view of the product, the three most large-class products of polyester, nylon and viscose staple fiber, the fourth quarter is obvious, in the first quarter, in the influence of the rose oil rise, liquidity release, and the increase in speculative demand. There is a significant increase in the market, most products reach the highest point in the first half of February or early in early February; the second quarter continues to fall, and the factory has frequent promotion. Take polyester filament POY as an example, in the second quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2020 and in the first quarter, inventory has increased, there is a certain pressure on liquid funds.

Spandex product prices are more obvious. From the bottom, it is because the raw material cost has risen sharply, and the raw material of the primary raw material of spandex is BDO, but PTMEG is not the only game of BDO, and another application field of BDO PBAT (a degradable material) is "limited" Plastic order "demand increased under policy, leading to skyrocketing BDO prices, PTMEG as the second largest downstree of BDO, and the cost of the cost is rising, which will drive the price of spandex. From the perspective of product innovation, with the technical advancement and product development of the spandex industry, the differentiation of spandex and high quality are fully able to meet the domestic international market demand, and its application scenarios have increased significantly, and the spandex has been from textile products. "MSG" became a major raw material.

03 chemical fiber exports have increased significantly

As global trade demand gradually recovers, the exports of chemical fiber products have increased significantly from June 1 to June. On the one hand, due to the low-basis effect last year, on the other hand, the international market demand has indeed increased, India, Vietnam, Myanmar and other Southeast Asian national epidemic, some orders reflow China. According to statistics from China Customs, from January to June, the main varieties of chemical fiber, polyester staple fiber, nylon filament, spandex and other products have increased significantly, and the 2019 Data before the epidemic (Table 2).

04 terminal market steadily recovery

Since 2021, my country's national economy has stabilized to drive the domestic demand market in the textile apparel. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, the national limit is 33.7% year-on-year, and the two-year average increase of 3.7%; the retail sales of online wearing commodities on the country increased by 24.1% year-on-year, growth rate In the same period in 2020, it was increased by 27 percentage points, an average increase of 9.8% in two years.

In terms of export, China Customs Express Data shows that China's textile garment total export is 14.09 billion US dollars in January, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year, an average increase of 6.2% in two years, of which the clothing export situation continues to improve, and the amount of exports in June from June With a significant increase of 40.3% year-on-year, the average increase of 4.4% year-on-year, the proportion of total textile clothing exports increased from 40.8% in the same period of 2020 to 51.1%; the amount of textile exports decreased with the decrease of foreign epidemic prevention materials. The total amount of exports in June to June were $ 68.56 billion, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, an average increase of 8.1% in two years.

05 economic benefits continue to grow

In the first half of the year, the overall economic benefits of the chemical fiber industry increased significantly from the same period in 2020, and the second quarter declined in a quarter.

In recent years, the structural reform of the supply side of the chemical fiber industry has achieved remarkable, and the backward production capacity is gradually eliminated. The new production capacity has also been effectively controlled. The capacity growth rate is significantly slow. The industry supply and demand pattern improvement, this is also a substantial growth of the chemical fiber industry. The root cause. In addition, raw materials and product prices continue to rise, and inventory Pan Ying also contributed a certain profit for the company.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, the chemical fiber industry has achieved operating income of 47.76 billion yuan, an increase of 35.05% year-on-year, 5.37% average growth in two years; total profit is 32.658 billion yuan, an increase of 387.77% year-on-year, 56.44 %; The operating rate of business income is 6.86%, an increase of 4.96 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 3.75 percentage points in 2019; 22.00% of the industry's loss, a year-on-year summary of 20.52 percentage points, 4.52 percentage points in 2019; The loss is 2,711 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.42% year-on-year, a decrease of 12.77% in two years.

06 fixed asset investment recovery growth

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, the chemical fiber industry actually completed fixed asset investment year-on-year increased by 16.6%. New production capacity still focuses on leading enterprises, and its scale advantage is further consolidated. With the gradual delivery of new production capacity, the contradiction between industry supply and demand will appear in phases, but disorderly competition is obviously reversed, and the industry's self-discipline has increased significantly.

Look forward to

Outlook in the second half of the year, subject to international oil price trend, epidemic, monetary policy towards, and will continue to have an uncertainties, and the volatility of chemical fiber market may increase. Out of the reduction of high oil prices and concerns about downstream demand, July oil prices have shown significant shock, follow-up pressure increase, but it is expected to be supported by the end of the fiber. The repetition of domestic and foreign epidemic will still have a large impact on end-consumption and shipping markets, and also increase the uncertainty of resuscitation of terminal markets. In the second half of the year, with the production of chemical fiber new devices will continue to increase the downstream market pressure, it is expected that under the third quarter, the chemical fiber industry can still maintain a good operational situation, but the four-quarter fell is large. It is expected that the annualized chemical fiber production, export, economic benefits, etc. will remain significantly better than 2020, but due to the low base in the first half of 2020, the growth rate of various industries in the 2021 industry will be apparent in the second half of the year. Least high and low trend

Hai'an County Qinfeng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. specializes in production and sales: polypropylene short fibers, PP short fibers, polyester short fibers, functional polypropylene short fibers, functional polyester short fibers, hydrophilic polyester short fibers.