Under the premise of the decline of terminal textile and garment exports in 2023, the foreign trade volume of cotton and polyester filament has ushered in explosive growth, and some institutions and enterprises do not understand and are unexpected.

According to customs statistics, China's cotton imports in May 35.8501 million meters, an increase of 237.84%, an increase of 88.72%, the import amount of 37,031,800 US dollars, an increase of 2.02%, an increase of 10.65%, 10 consecutive months of year-on-year growth, From January to May 2023, China's cumulative imports of cotton cloth reached 138.85 million meters, an increase of 163.21%. On the other hand, according to customs statistics, from January to May this year, the export volume of polyester filament and staple fiber increased by 516,000 tons, an increase of 30%.

In sharp contrast, China's cotton yarn imports fell in May (down 44.6%, 1.4%), and cotton yarn imports fell sharply from January to May 2023 (down 50.9%, 13.6%). In May, China's textile and garment exports were 25.32 billion US dollars, down 13.1%, down 1.3% from the previous month. Among them, textile exports were 12.02 billion US dollars, down 14.2%, down 5.6%; Garment exports were $13.3 billion, down 12.2% and up 3% from the previous month.

Why since 2023, the import and export of cotton, polyester filament and textile and garment exports have significantly diverged?

Cotton "reflux"

From the cotton end, the industry analysis is mainly driven by the following factors:

First, by the United States, the European Union and other restrictions on the upgrading of Xinjiang cotton import ban, some domestic textile and clothing enterprises will be traceable orders to Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan and other countries cotton textile enterprises processing (or its branch), and considering the poor printing and dyeing capacity/level of Southeast Asia/South Asia countries and clothing design, processing is insufficient (worry about not meeting customer requirements), Therefore, cotton still needs to "return" to the country, and then exported in the form of clothing.

Second, although a large number of orders from Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea and other countries have "flown to the southeast" since 2020, the printing and dyeing equipment and technical level of Southeast Asia/South Asia countries are low, especially the export of high-end high-value-added orders to Europe and the United States and other countries (previously mainly relying on direct imports of Chinese cotton, fabrics, clothing). Can only entrust Chinese dyeing factory for its cotton cloth processing (Bangladesh, Pakistan and other countries to the garment processing industry as the leading).

Third, in recent years, including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia and other Asian countries and some African textile industry has developed rapidly, but they are non-cotton main producing countries, so most of the "heavy textile", printing and dyeing enterprises are few, the serious shortage of supporting facilities, many companies are difficult to complete clothing orders alone, cotton export prices than domestic cotton also have some advantages.

Fourth, since 2023, the prosperity of new export orders is low, mainly short orders, small orders, bulk orders, medium and long line large orders are obviously insufficient, taking into account the general delivery time is tight, quality index requirements are not high and profit margins are slightly poor characteristics, fabric, clothing, foreign trade companies tend to directly purchase cotton dyeing, not only to shorten the performance cycle, but also to avoid European and American customer traceability problems.

Manufacturers rush ahead to stimulate polyester filament exports

As for the export of polyester filament, in the first half of the year, the textile and garment industry chain alternated between hot and cold, textile and garment exports declined, and polyester filament and staple fiber exports became the only growth seedlings, mainly due to the influence of India BIS certification, manufacturers catch up in advance, and the influence of this factor can only last until June; In addition, Dachang is also actively expanding overseas markets this year, and its export performance is obviously better. According to customs statistics, the export of polyester filament and staple fiber to India increased by 194,000 tons, an increase of 219%. India's export increase alone accounted for about 38% of the overall increase in polyester exports, and the increase in polyester filament alone accounted for 46%. India for polyester filament for the implementation of BIS mandatory certification news in the industry has been rumored for a long time, the industry believes that in July this year began to implement polyester POY, FDY, industrial silk, due to the uncertainty of the application for certification, many manufacturers choose to ship in advance to deal with.

The advance shipment greatly boosted the polyester trade between China and India, last year from January to May, the top three countries for the export of polyester are Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, India in 7th place, the share of only 5%, and this year in January, 2, May, the first export is India, the total share of 13% in January to May, ranking first.

On the other hand, textile and garment orders are gradually flowing to Southeast Asian countries, and the export momentum of Vietnam and Bangladesh is strong. Many of them come from the initiative of Chinese enterprises to transfer, mainly due to tariffs, environmental protection policies, industrial transformation and upgrading, labor costs and other considerations. However, as a raw material for textile clothing, the production capacity of chemical fiber products such as polyester has not been transferred to overseas in large numbers.

In the future, the trend of domestic chemical fiber products is export, the downstream production growth rate of foreign chemical fiber is very high, and the demand gap of chemical fiber products is gradually expanding. At the same time, domestic production capacity continues to expand, and more markets are needed.

Textile enterprises will usher in a big test

Looking back at the textile market in June, some textile companies have lost orders, and confidence has loosened. The traditional off-season is deepening, and the textile market is about to usher in a big test. It is well known that the textile market is obviously cyclical. From June to August each year, the demand is low season. At this time, textile orders are often prone to significant shrinkage.

At present, the textile market is in the critical period of summer and autumn fabric change, and the orders are mainly based on the development of proofing and bulk replenishment, and the polarization between textile enterprises is becoming more and more obvious. Overall, textile orders in June showed a steady trend of decline.

"Our company takes into account both domestic and foreign trade. Orders in June were virtually unchanged from May. On the whole, the factory has received a fair amount of orders, but the trade Department has very few orders, and there are no hot varieties." "We sell mainly domestically. Since June, the total number of orders has been about the same as in May. Trade orders are issued intermittently, mainly to 480T nylon silk spinning, the downstream into the autumn and winter fabric stocking cycle is the main reason." Several fabric dealers said.

The textile industry pays attention to "three points look at domestic demand, seven points look at exports", although the 618 big promotion has brought a wave of consumption boom, boosting the domestic market, but this wave of good is short-lived. In the context of insufficient foreign trade orders and slow recovery of external demand, the lethality of the traditional off-season to textile enterprises cannot be underestimated. At this stage, the biggest problem encountered by the textile industry is not overcapacity. When the off-season comes, some textile enterprises that lack a single have no choice but to maintain machine operation by means of production inventory. With the increasingly high inventory, in order to effectively go to the warehouse, this part of the enterprise have reduced profit margins, with low price competition to seek orders, this is particularly obvious in the conventional fabric plate.

"Since this year, although the fabric price is basically stable, the profit is really low." Mainly, foreign trade orders do not give strength, in order to ensure orders, reduce profits will be done, after all, there is no order and what profit." "Looking back at the first half of the year, fabric prices are still quite stable, the phenomenon of low-price goods is extremely common, and profits naturally shrink a lot." In order to maintain production, it is normal to reduce profit guarantee orders.

Nowadays, the price fluctuation of fabrics is small, the price increase is not easy, and even some of the hot fabrics have fallen into the cycle of "no price increase, no profit, and no sales". Can appear "a cloth is difficult to find", "cash delivery" and other popular scenes are mostly niche fabrics, in the out-of-stock stage, such fabrics are extremely expensive, but the duration is short.

Hai'an County Qinfeng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. specializes in production and sales：polypropylene staple fiber, Polyester Staple Fiber, functional polypropylene short fiber, functional polyester staple fiber, hydrophilic polyester staple fiber,  polypropylene, PP staple fiber, polyester staple fiber.