Recently, the international crude oil market has been hit by "cold air." After hitting the highest in the year in early October, the roller coaster style began to "fall down."

Take the lead and move the whole body. In the past year, affected by the fluctuation of oil prices, the industrial chain built by the middle and lower reaches of the chemical industry and manufacturing enterprises closely related to oil has also ushered in new industry status and challenges to varying degrees, inciting the entire industry. "The Butterfly Effect".

The reporter learned that due to the successive decline in oil prices, the price of petrochemical raw materials in the middle and lower reaches such as PTA (mainly chemical fiber raw materials) also experienced different degrees of decline. Recently, PTA prices have been falling, and the TA901 has fallen more than 1900 points from the high point of 8072 on August 29, a drop of 23.6%. . However, in the entire chemical industry chain system, many middle and lower reaches of the chemical industry and manufacturing enterprises have not really benefited from this. Instead, they are experiencing the double test of excessive market price decline and low overall demand.

According to industry insiders, the current chemical industry, which is affected by fluctuations in international oil prices, will be transferred to the middle and lower reaches of the chemical industry, which will bring structural changes to the entire chemical industry chain and value chain. In the long run, the current fluctuations in oil prices and the weakness of the downstream demand side will jointly build a pattern of “shuffle” in the chemical industry, which will promote the construction of a new market structure.

Therefore, for many middle and lower reaches of the chemical industry, how to get through this winter is very urgent.

"anxious" PTA

In a chemical park in Fengxian, a suburb of Shanghai, a petrochemical company specializing in the production of PTA is undergoing an annual rectification and refurbishment work. In the factory under the night, the machine is roaring and the lights are bright, and it is obviously dim and quiet. A lot.

"Compared with previous years, this year's inspection machine is obviously earlier." On November 22nd, the security guard at the factory doorkeeping office told the reporter that the workers were still working normally at the factory during the factory shutdown, but the work was not production, but overhaul. Instruments and equipment.

In the current market environment where crude oil prices have plummeted, many chemical companies that produce PTAs are experiencing the challenge of falling prices and falling profit margins.

"The price has fallen for a long time, which led to the company not making money last month." A related person from the company who did not want to be named told reporters that the factory chose to stop production and renovation work at this point in time. The current helplessness under the pressure of production and operation.

According to its introduction, international oil prices have continued to fall. Under the influence of the industrial environment, the price of PTA has been reduced by a large margin. At the same time, the PX price of upstream raw materials required for production is still firm, which has caused the current enterprise PTA to face the dilemma of a sharp drop in profit margin.

According to China Textile Network data, the market price of PTA (East China) has quickly entered the indirect downward channel since the end of August this year to mid-September at a high level of 9,200 yuan / ton. As of November 21, the price of PTA (East China) was 6568.89 yuan / ton, compared with a drop of 25.46%.

It must be mentioned that in the entire industrial chain transmission system similar to the model of "Petroleum-Naphtha-PX-PTA-Chemical Fiber Factory-Textile Factory-Clothing Factory", the current PTA production enterprises are "like the throat". Yes, the upstream raw material PX price is limited due to domestic production capacity. Under the influence of the high dependence on the overall market and the imbalance of supply and demand in the market, its price is far less affected by the fluctuation of oil prices than PTA, which also leads to the current production of PTA. The profit margin is greatly discounted.

"In addition to the previous surge in oil prices, PTA's price hikes, prices have soared, triggering downstream companies to protest and market control, may also lead to the collapse of this round of prices." The above staff explained that PTA prices passed this round of oil The ups and downs of the fluctuations have basically returned to the previous price status.

Weak downstream demand

In fact, among the reasons for the current shutdown of some chemical companies that produce PTA, in addition to the rapid decline in prices, the lack of end-use consumer demand is also a key factor that cannot be ignored.

The above-mentioned informed staff told reporters that the current overall macro-economy is facing downward pressure, which is reflected in the overall lack of demand at the demand side of the product, and is gradually being transmitted to the production links of the middle and upper reaches of the chemical industry chain, so that the PTA production in the entire market is obviously somewhat excess.

The reporter learned that many manufacturing and manufacturing enterprises at the end of the petroleum industry chain, such as textile and garment manufacturing and mold manufacturing, are facing the current situation of reduced orders and shortened peak seasons.

In Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province, a major economics industry in the country, many garment processing enterprises have had to face the helpless reality of the off-season in the industry after the “Double Eleven” peak season has just passed.

Wu Guoshan, head of Tongxiang Ouli Clothing Co., Ltd., said in an interview that although the price of chemical fiber required by garment enterprises has also been lowered due to the impact of falling oil and PTA prices, the current garment enterprises are welcoming the off-season of the industry. The overall decline in orders was significant, which caused “the raw material prices have fallen and the companies have not benefited a lot”.

"In the past, the "Double Eleven" can be extended for one month in the peak season. Now it has just entered the off-season." Wu Guoshan told reporters that the signs of the weakening of the consumer market from the consumer market to the garment industry this year are very obvious.

"The economy is not good, and the orders of downstream enterprises are reduced. After being transferred to the midstream chemical companies, it will lead to adjustment and reduction of production." An industry insider who has been engaged in the chemical industry for a long time in Shanghai explained to reporters that the industry from the overall oil industry In terms of chain composition, in addition to some PX-producing companies in the middle and lower reaches of the chemical industry, most companies are also facing the dilemma of thinning profits.

According to the industry insider, compared with the operation of chemical companies in the first half of this year, the profit level of the overall industry in the second half of this year has shown a downward trend. In addition to the fluctuation of raw material prices such as oil, the key to the overall market demand is Weakness.

Cruel market rules

In fact, the current market environment in which the profits of the overall chemical companies are thinning has also laid the groundwork for the cruel market rules of "big fish eating small fish".

Liu Aimin, vice president of operations for Lubrizol Management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. Asia Pacific, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that similar changes in the chemical industry caused by oil price fluctuations and weak downstream demand are affected in the industry. It is called "structural change."

"In the past value chain, downstream demand is strong, and the cost increase due to raw materials and other factors can be transmitted from the middle to the end consumer goods layer by layer, and finally diluted in the process." Liu Aimin said that the value chain is also reversed, but often When the lack of demand is transmitted to the middle of the industrial chain, it will bring a large market impact to the raw material producers with weak competitiveness in the middle.

In an interview with reporters, Zhang Li, senior director of BASF New Materials Co., Ltd., said that the entire chemical industry chain, from petroleum to textiles, usually contains many different value chain products, subdividing many different product types, for many large chemical companies. In other words, the product coverage is often strong enough and the ability to respond to market risks is stronger.

"After the value chain is long enough, it is easy to average the cost fluctuations of product production." Zhang Li believes that compared with mid-range raw material manufacturers, many large-scale chemical companies that are at the end of manufacturing are more resistant to risks, and the market is affected. smaller.

Liu Aimin revealed to reporters that many large chemical companies in China currently sign a certain purchase agreement with suppliers when purchasing bulk raw materials, and directly formulate a certain percentage of floating standards in the purchase price with the prices of raw materials such as petroleum to appropriately avoid the skyrocketing or The market risk of plunging.

"This is almost a price pricing method common to large chemical companies." Liu Aimin told reporters that on this basis, although the rise and fall of oil prices has an impact on large chemical companies, their daily production arrangements are not significant.

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