Although it is not a tumultuous trend, since the last year's skyrocketing, the chemical fiber industry's prosperity has dropped significantly, and it seems to have a "winter" feeling. In particular, almost every link in the entire industry chain is in a downtrend channel.

Along with the general trend, almost all links in the entire chemical fiber industry chain have fallen into a loss:

(1) The PX-naphtha processing difference is around $300/ton, which is on the verge of loss.

(2) PTA processing difference fluctuates around 700 yuan/ton, and equipment with low process level has lost money.

(3) The profit of the polyester wire factory was good in the early period, but due to the recent weaker terminal inventory, its production and sales were weakened, which further led to the profit promotion of the polyester wire factory. Most of the products have already lost money and are not profitable, especially FDY.

(4) The stock of terminal grey cloth is high. According to statistics, the inventory in Shengze area is about 40 days, which is more than 10 days higher than the same period of last year. In the case of a sluggish industry, terminal companies are mostly arrears of sales, and the cash flow situation is worrying.

Falling prices! Losing money! The entire chemical fiber industry chain barely makes money. So where is the spring? Is it far from the price increase?

First of all, the trade situation has clearly improved and a positive signal has been released. It is reported that on the afternoon of October 11, local time, Trump said that the economic and trade consultations have achieved a substantial first-phase results, and will postpone the tariffs imposed on China this week. If the trade situation continues to improve, it will directly increase the external demand for chemical fiber products.

Secondly, in the case of a sluggish industry, all links in the industry chain will take measures to make the entire industry "live". For example, the sharp increase in ethylene glycol in the first half of September is that the load on the device is continuously lower, superimposed on the event factors of the industry.

In the same way, PTA and polyester factories will also reduce their losses through overhaul if they are not profitable. The terminal has been bombed and the loom has been reduced in load by means of holiday, etc., thereby digesting the stock more quickly. The reduction will definitely change from quantitative to qualitative.

Once again, due to the sharp increase in crude oil, the trade situation eased, and the production and sales rebounded last Friday (the production and sales of polyester mainstream factories are concentrated around 130%-140%, and some of the higher ones are 220%, 300%, etc.) and other factors, October. On the 12th, polyester filaments increased significantly, especially in the extinction category.

Although the stock of polyester yarn has increased after the National Day holiday, the overall inventory is still at a low level.

The absolute prices of all links in the industrial chain are at historically low levels, and the value points appear. Once there are more favorable factors, it will definitely drive the release of speculative demand such as stocks.

On the whole, although the current industry boom is low, but with the accumulation of bullish factors, especially the reduction of equipment load, from quantitative to qualitative change, the superimposed trade situation is alleviated, if the terminal can go smoothly to the warehouse, then the spring of the industry Or it will not be far away.

Hai'an Qinfeng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. is a company specializing in the production, research and development and sales of polypropylene staple fiber, polyester staple fiber, functional polypropylene staple fiber and PP staple fiber. It is based on innovation and sets a good example for the industry. Its main specifications are 1.5D to 200D and the length is 5-150mm. The products are available in a wide range of colors and support color to map or sample customization. Qinfeng will always adhere to the business philosophy of “pursuing excellence and creating brilliance”. We sincerely look forward to your call!