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[Polyester staple fiber: ups and downs in the first half of the year, and "crisis" and "opportunities" coexist in the second half of the year]
Release date:[2021/7/13] Read a total of[111]time

In the first half of 2021, the polyester staple fiber market was ups and downs. The market price hit a new high in February, but then the price began to fall sharply. The profit performance was even more embarrassing. In the first half of 2021, polyester staple fiber turned from a good profit to a loss. It also keeps accumulating. In the second half of the year, how will the polyester staple fiber market operate under the multiple conflicting news of high oil levels, new production capacity waiting to be released, and global demand recovery expectations?


   In 2021, the polyester staple fiber market showed a trend of first rising and then declining, mainly due to changes in basic supply and demand.


   The first stage: welcoming the new year, the price goes up all the way


Due to the additional production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia in early January and the implementation of the Biden government’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, market confidence has been boosted. In addition, buyers are generally optimistic about expectations after the Spring Festival. Staple fiber traders and downstream customers have too many stocks, and factories The oversold phenomenon is serious, and the spot price has also risen sharply. Secondly, at this stage, some short-fiber enterprises have entered equipment maintenance, and the overall supply of the market is tight, which has helped the price of staple fiber to rise; thirdly, the weaker basis after the Spring Festival attracts a large number of arbitrageurs to buy, the demand is well matched, the buying momentum is rising, and the market price All the way up, it reached the highest price of 8,000 yuan/ton during the year, an increase of 34.01% from the beginning of the year.


   The second stage: imbalance between supply and demand, prices fall from high levels


First, the news of the watercourse blockage caused by the stranding of the Suez Canal vessel, the worsening of the global epidemic and the blocked vaccination, the soaring U.S. Treasury yields, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and the slowing down of procurement by independent refineries in China have made the market more concerned about short-term demand. , Dragging down the overall market trading mentality of staple fiber. 


  Secondly, the imbalance between supply and demand is obvious. In the early stage, many companies restarted overhaul, and the industry operating rate and output increased. Coupled with the unsatisfactory performance of terminal orders, the company's inventory accumulation was obvious, and the price of staple fiber fell from a high level.


   The third stage: weak demand, price fluctuations within a narrow range


Under inflation worries, the global stock market has fallen, coupled with the weakening of macro expectations such as the continued deterioration of the epidemic in India, the commodity market as a whole has fallen into a callback, and the lack of purchasing intentions of yarn and non-woven fabric companies has caused a certain impact on the market. The price returned to the level before the Spring Festival. Even if the cash flow has shrunk significantly, some companies have entered the maintenance mode, and crude oil started a strong upward trend in late June. The aggregate cost performance is strong. However, due to the lack of demand to increase momentum and the bearish mentality, it is difficult for the market to rise and fall, and maintain 100-200 Fluctuations in the range of RMB/ton.


  2, analysis of the supply and demand data of polyester staple fiber from January to June 2021


  2.1 Supply analysis from January to June 2021


From January to June of 2021, my country’s direct-spun staple fiber supply has a limited increase, of which the newly added capacity is only 80,000 tons, and all of them are hollow staple fiber production capacity. Although the actual output has increased significantly year-on-year, it has been compared to the second half of last year. A decline of 6.05%.


   productivity analysis


  In the first half of 2021, direct-spun polyester staple fiber has added a total of 80,000 tons of new capacity. As of the end of June, the industry's total production capacity was 8.121 million tons, an increase of 0.99% from the end of 2020.


  Yield analysis


   The output of direct-spun polyester staple fiber from January to June 2021 totaled 3.5325 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.31%.


Although not much new capacity was added in the first half of the year, the operating rate of enterprises in the first half of last year was relatively low due to the epidemic, especially the industry operating rate in the first quarter of last year was as low as 50%, while the industry operating rate was generally higher in the first quarter of this year. Except for the centralized maintenance period of the Spring Festival, the industry operating rate in other time periods was operating above 90%. Until May, affected by losses and inventory pressure, with the increase in maintenance equipment, the industry operating rate gradually declined, but it was still at 85%. Run above.


   import analysis


   From January to May of 2021, imports of polyester staple fiber totaled 76,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.68%.


   In 2021, the import volume of polyester staple fiber is still low, and there is a continued downward trend year-on-year. my country's polyester staple fiber import dependency is relatively low. A small amount of imported goods are either mainly differentiated staple fibers or low-cost recycled staple fibers. With the increase in domestic supply, the increase in differentiation and the decrease in polymerization costs , my country's polyester staple fiber imports may still show a downward trend.


  2.2 Demand analysis from January to June 2021


   From January to June 2021, the demand for polyester staple fiber downstream in various fields has different performance. Among them, the performance of the yarn link is better than that of the spunlace non-woven fabric field, and the polyester-cotton yarn market in the yarn link is better than the pure polyester yarn market.


   Pure polyester yarn operating rate analysis


   The average operating rate of pure polyester yarn from January to June 2021 is 70.70%, an increase of 8.84% over the same period last year.


The difference from previous years is that due to the impact of the epidemic, there will be workers in some areas during the Lunar New Year holiday in 2021. The phenomenon of "in situ Chinese New Year" has occurred. Therefore, the start of yarn enterprises during the Lunar New Year holiday will be higher than the same period in previous years. However, in the mid-to-late second quarter, due to limited increase in the domestic market , And the foreign trade market continues to be affected by issues such as high ocean freight rates and tight containers. Therefore, the operating rate of pure polyester yarn companies began to decline slightly in the off-season under the situation of domestic and foreign difficulties, until it remained flat in the same period last year.


   The operating rate of polyester-cotton yarn from January to June 2021 is even higher than the same period in previous years. The average operating rate of polyester-cotton yarns from January to June is 77.75%, an increase of 18.73% from the same period in 2020, and the profit margin continues to be good, which can be regarded as the best variety of polyester-related yarns.


However, the spunlace non-woven fabric market caused serious oversupply due to the substantial expansion last year. This year, the operating rate of spunlace non-woven fabric enterprises was seriously insufficient. The sequelae of a large number of market overdrafts last year also continued into the first half of this year, so the demand for spunlace is slightly Significantly weak.


  Export analysis


   From January to May of 2021, the export volume of polyester staple fiber totaled 417,200 tons, an increase of 46.18% year-on-year.


From January to May of 2021, my country’s polyester staple fiber exports have increased significantly, but the overall high growth rate is mainly due to the low base under the impact of last year’s epidemic. Although the export market has recovered this year, there has been a significant increase in foreign trade orders in March. On the one hand, affected by the high ocean freight rates and on the other hand, the recovery process of overseas demand, the overall export growth rate is still weak compared to 2019.


  3, inventory data analysis


   From January to June 2021, the inventory of direct-spun polyester staple fiber showed a trend of first decline and then rise. At the end of the period, physical inventory was 17.5 days, and equity inventory was 2.4 days.


   Due to the concentrated stocking before the year and the expectation of the recovery of demand after the holiday, stocks in various fields were sufficient before the Spring Festival, the stocks of staple fiber enterprises fell to historical lows, and the equity stocks were mostly negative for more than 20 days. But then, the speed of demand recovery began to be questioned, and the sequelae of market overdraft gradually emerged. After the end of February, both equity and physical inventories have increased significantly. Equity inventory has turned from negative to positive, and physical inventory has exceeded the 15-day warning line. As a result, the pressure on corporate inventories has increased.


   From the downstream inventory situation, it is not optimistic.


   First look at the stocking of raw materials for yarn companies.


   From January to June 2021, the stocking of raw materials of pure polyester yarn enterprises showed a trend of rising first and then falling, but the overall stocking days were higher than the same period of previous years.


The trend of raw material inventory in spinning mills just made a reasonable explanation for the inventory of staple fiber companies. At the beginning of the year, the stocking of spinning mills was generally high, but the stocking days from April to June gradually declined. Even close to the same period in previous years, the decline in stocking capacity of spinning companies also caused short fiber Enterprises have increased a certain amount of pressure.


  Look at the finished product inventory of the spinning mill again. From January to June 2021, the finished product inventory of pure polyester yarn enterprises has shown a gradual upward trend this year. The peak season of the first half of the year has not waited. Foreign trade orders continue to be blocked by sea transportation obstacles, and the inventory of polyester yarn enterprises has gradually risen from a low level. The consequence is a decline in the ability to stock raw materials.


   4. Profit analysis of direct spinning polyester staple fiber from January to June 2021


   The average profit of polyester staple fiber in the first half of 2021 was 297.18 yuan/ton, down 36.52% year-on-year. Let's look at it concretely. In the first quarter, the price of polyester staple fiber continued to rise due to the continuous oversold of factories and the strong cost support, and market participants were generally optimistic about the expectations after the Spring Festival. The market continued to accept high-priced sources and cash flow rose accordingly. In the second quarter, the spot price of polyester staple fiber dropped sharply. The previous continuous increase caused the market to panic. In addition, the vaccination process was blocked, the U.S. Treasury yields soared, and the dollar strengthened, which dragged down the market's trading mentality. The slow return of basis has led to lower supply of some point prices, making market buying sluggish, and polyester staple fiber cash flow has also shown a downward trend.


  5, July-December 2021 direct spinning polyester staple fiber trend forecast


  Supply forecast


  It is still difficult to clarify when the new capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year, and the actual output is estimated to be limited, and the actual impact on the market is expected to be limited. Therefore, the supply in the second half of the year is mainly to monitor the dynamics of existing plant installations.


At present, there may be two sets of equipment maintenance plans in Jiangyin with a total of 400,000 tons in July. Therefore, in July, there are also plans to restart multiple sets of maintenance equipment, and the maintenance of staple fiber equipment has been concentrated during the Spring Festival holiday over the years, so if there are no other accidents. In the second half of the year, the operation of the staple fiber plant was relatively stable, but the time when the new plant was put into operation had a greater impact on the industry's supply. The overall estimate is that the output in the second half of the year will be higher than that in the first half of the year.


  Demand Forecast


   Generally speaking, in the second half of the year, both the traditional "golden nine silver ten" peak season for domestic trade and the peak foreign trade season from July to August are released. Therefore, the industry demand in the second half of the year is expected to be higher than that of the first half.


   Generally speaking, the new production capacity of polyester staple fiber in the second half of the year is small, and the actual supply is expected to increase limited, so the year-on-year increase in the supply of staple fiber is expected to be small. With the expectation of the recovery of global demand and the low-cost advantage brought by the integrated device, it is expected that the direct-spun staple fiber will continue to use its own advantages to expand its market share. From the perspective of market conditions, the impact of high oil prices and high costs from July to September is still likely to continue to rise, but we must also pay attention to the impact of the actual terminal situation on the market. During the period, the market may fluctuate up and down, but the overall center of gravity may Maintain an upward trend; however, with the increase in domestic supply pressure on raw materials in the fourth quarter, the market must also be alert to the risk of price declines caused by possible decline in costs.


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