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[A short month, falling 12%! Giants have not been honored, filament factories are keen on promotional overdraft demand]
Release date:[2021/9/14] Read a total of[222]time

Affected by the continuous callback of the cost of crude oil prices, the recent polyester plates still show a weaker situation, of which PTA leads to the polyester plate. On the 8th, the PTA trend showed an accelerated situation, and it was a new low in mid-June. The main contract has fallen to 4,744 yuan / ton, and a single decline is nearly 3.5%. In just a month less than a month, the PTA has a falling range has exceeded 12%.

Giant repair is late, the PTA is working in line soaring

For the significant weakness of the recent price of PTA, the industry believes that the cost decline, the supply and demand weakens and other fundamental resonances. The continued weakening of the cost is the direct cause of the PTA of this round.

Although the recent hurricane of Mexico has brought boost to oil prices to a certain extent, the international crude oil prices have emerged as compared to the previous two months. It is more worth mentioning that the direct upstream raw material PX of PTA will seem to be more weak due to the overall trend of the overall trend of the industry.

From the comparison of prices, the current PX and Niki oil prices have fallen to near 225 US dollars / ton. The raw materials continue to be weak, and PTA itself is naturally difficult to obtain market price increase.

Secondly, from the fundamental fundamental fundamentals of PTA itself, the situation of this variety is not optimistic. According to the market news, a 1.2 million tonne devices in the northwest of the parking in early August have been issued in recent days, and Yi Sheng Dahua 225 and the maintenance of 2.5 million tons of devices have not been honored. This makes the PTA starting rate suddenly soaring To 80%.

And the corresponding downstream polyester starting rate is still in low operating state because of the loss of orders, profit is compressed. The situation in which the upper and downstream starting misplaced has made the top of the PTA September, and the price will naturally be in the atmosphere of "lower".

Frequent promotion of polyester, the late demand, PTA decline will challenge the bottom limit of the processing fee

From the current fundamental situation, subsequent PTA will enter the continuous cumulative cycle, and the profit will be compressed to the vicinity of the profit margin.

From the perspective of processing costs, it is currently about 450, falling to the low year, and is lower than the same level in the year. If the following devices below 400 markets will fall into a loss, it may lead to reducing the construction rate of the shutdown. Last Wednesday, the PTA futures 01 contract, the 4800 creating a large increase in recent new, positions and transactions have increased significantly, and there is a big funds to configure PTA. At present, PTA's decline will continue to press the processing fee until some high Cost production can park, but the processing fee is relatively limited, and it is expected that about 300 is the limit.

In addition, from the downstream polyester, the polyester product mainly based on polyester filaments is passively follow the raw material price adjustment, affecting the procurement of downstream merchants, the downstream procurement is biased, and the production and sales of the same day downturn, filament enterprises passive price reduction promotion. Take the polyester filament as an example, the recent multi-wheel centralized preferential promotion, the downstream meetings, the polyester filament enterprises have a reservoir effect in the short term, and the pulse production and sales advances overdraft demand, the market is getting cold after the event, and with the market The frequency of promotion has accelerated, and the promotion time point has also become the node of downstream procurement. Because the market is expected to be horses, users also purchase more on demand to slow the inventory pressure. When the terminal demand is weak, the production and sales continue to weaken, the polyester link reaches the purpose of the deposit by price reduction promotion, and the short-term promotion is short-term, but it is not able to improve the contradiction between supply and demand.

Overall, under the expectation of the supply and demand, the PTA market lacks strong rising power, short-term or continuing disadvantage. Whether there is a change in the backup need to focus on cost and supply and demand self-regulation.

 Hai'an County Qinfeng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. specializes in production and sales: polypropylene short fiber, polyester short fiber, functional polypropylene short fiber, functional polyester short fiber, hydrophilic polyester short fiber, polypropylene, PP staple fiber, polyester staple fiber.

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