Since this year, the industry's domestic and foreign challenges have been intricate, especially in the second half of the year, the domestic epidemic situation, the energy consumption of dual-control continues to increase, and the reaches of the industry's main operation indicators is obvious. The domestic demand market is stable, international demand has increased, and the industry is still good for industry economy. International oil prices have continued to rise to chemical fiber markets, but also increased enterprise production costs. Outlook all years, the operation of the chemical fiber industry will still face many tests, but the industry has a good development of toughness and risk resistance, will still achieve smooth development.

01 Production growth rate

In the first three quarters, the overall workload of the chemical fiber industry was maintained high, but in September, it was restricted by the energy-consuming dual-control limit, and the start-up load was rapidly declined. Taking straight polyester filaments as an example, the workload is about 85% in early September, falling to 75% in September; although in October rebounds, the overall is still in low-load operation, the monthly work is about 77%, the new year is new . According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, 1 to September, the chemical fiber production is 50.37 million tons, an increase of 13.54% year-on-year, in June 2019, and the average growth rate of chemical fiber production is 6.75%.

From the point of view, it is affected by the change in the changes of the end of the chemical fiber yield. This year, the chemical fiber production will fall uploaded monthly monthly, and the energy consumption dual-control limit is limited, and the single-monthly production in September is 2.0% year-on-year, from 1 to September chemical fiber production. The growth rate was reduced to 13.5%, and the growth rate was dropped by 3.6 percentage points over the first half of the year. From the average growth rate of two years, the average growth rate in the first three quarters remained stabilized and slowed down.

02 price center movement

From the point of view, the international oil prices continue to rise, WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose from $ 48 / barrel and $ 51 / barrel at the end of September, 78 US dollars / barrel, increased by more than 50% of $ 78 / barrel at the end of September. . In October, WTI and Brent crude oil prices have exceeded $ 80 mark (Figure 3), and international oil prices have far exceeded the price height before the outbreak of the epidemic.

Affected by the high price of crude oil, the cost of chemical fiber has risen, and the price of chemical fiber market has increased, but the increase is not as follows. Take polyester as an example, the raw material PTA and MEG gains were 36% and 43% respectively, and the polyester filaments (POY) and polyester short fiber increase were 30% and 24% respectively. (Figure 5) . It can be seen that the price of fiber products is lower than the raw material gain.

03 export to maintain growth

According to statistics from China Customs, from January to September, the main varieties of chemical fiber exports 35.484 million tons, which increased by 21.03 months, and the growth rate fell sharply from 21.03 percentage points in the first half. On the one hand, due to the improvement of the base period last year, on the other hand due to three Decreased from the quarterly supply. Overall, the chemical fiber export still maintains growth, and the growth rate has fallen, but the scale of exports still exceeds the epidemic level, and the average growth rate of 3.31% in two years.

04 terminal market is good

Since this year, my country's textile apparel market has to consolidate local epidemics, impact, and warmth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the total amount of clothing shoes and hats, the total retail sales of needle textile products increased by 20.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded by 33 percentage points from the same period last year, and the average increase of 2.8% in two years. Online consumption is pulled on the domestic demand market, from January to September, retail sales of goods on the country increased by 15.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 12.3 percentage points from the same period last year, and the average increase of 9.3% in two years.

In terms of export, the export of textile clothing in China has maintained a good growth in my country's demand for international market demand and some overseas orders. China Customs Express Data shows that in January to September, my country's textile costume export is $ 227.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and the growth rate is 6.5 percentage points in the first half of the year, an average increase of 6.2%. The export situation of the clothing is significantly improved, from January to September, costume exports reached 12.241 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, which was the highest growth rate in the same period since 2010, and the average increase of 4.2% in two years. Affected by the demand for international epidemic prevention materials, from January to September, the export of textiles was 105.18 billion US dollars, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year, but the average growth rate of two years was still 8.6%.

05 profitability continues to stabilize

From the state statistics data, the overall economic benefits of the chemical fiber industry have grown significantly from the same period in 2020. From January to September, the chemical fiber industry achieved operating income of 74.888 billion yuan, an increase of 33.8% year-on-year, 7.7.85% in two years; total profit is 47.138 billion yuan, an increase of 317.99% year-on-year, 52.70% in two years; business income profit margin 6.33%, an increase of 4.31 percentage points year-on-year, increased by 3.17 percentage points in 2019; 20.56% of the industry's loss, 18.36 percentage points in the same period, more than 3.86 percentage points in the same period of 2019; loss of loss of labor is 395.52 billion yuan The year-on-year decrease was 54.17%, and the average decrease was 12.89% in two years.

The leading level of the Chemical fiber industry is the first of the textile all-in-industrial chain, of which 40% and 23% of the total profit are contributed separately. The structural reform of the supply side is the fundamental reason why the chemical fiber industry has greatly increased, and the industry's supply and demand pattern is improved, and the industrial chain profit is transferred from the raw material link to the fiber. In addition, the stock premium in the price rising channel has contributed a large profit.

06 fixed asset investment growth is obvious

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the chemical fiber industry actually completed the fixed asset investment year-on-year increased by 29.5%, and the growth rate rebounded by 51.8 percentage points from the same period last year, of which the average growth rate of the chemical fiber industry was 0.3%, the investment scale has Basically restore the level of epidemic.

Look forward to

Outlook all year round, the operation of the chemical fiber industry will still face many tests. In the context of the global economic recovery, while the weather is getting cold, crude oil consumption is expected to maintain strong, the supply of OPEC maintains caution, but the Iranian agreement negotiations and national monetary policy changes may become the risk of oil price fluctuations, expected oil prices in the fourth quarter The support of the chemical fiber market is weakened. In October, the local power supply has been released, and the downstream woven start rate has been significantly recovered, and the lanssest of the chemical fiber industry is slow. Recently, Fujian, Zhejiang and other places have suspended orderly power measures, which means that the restricted policy is further released in the short term, and the festival atmosphere at the end of the year increases the demand for end market, but new production can release will be greatly imposed. In addition, it is still necessary to pay attention to the uncertainty in the winter epidemic to rebound on the industry.

In the fourth quarter, it is expected that with the consumption and stable demand of raw material stocks downstream enterprises, the chemical fiber industry will be further improved, but it is difficult to rebound until the high level, the price of chemical fiber market will maintain high shock operation. The estimated chemical fiber production is gradually improving by the same period last year, the annual increase is further decline in the first three quarters; economic benefits indicators will still be significantly better than last year. However, the industry must have a clear understanding, the international oil price fell and the new crown of the new crown "reverse reflow" will have a large risk brought about my country's chemical fiber textile industry. my country's energy consumption is also the industry. I have to face the problem for a long time.

 Hai'an County Qinfeng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. specializes in production and sales:polypropylene staple fibe, Polyester Staple Fiber, functional polypropylene short fiber, functional polyester short fiber, hydrophilic polyester short fiber, polypropylene, PP staple fiber, polyester staple fiber.