The "market whirlwind" brought about by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still blowing violently, blowing oil prices into the sky. Affected by this, the domestic energy and chemical futures market remains hot, and how will the downstream market be affected?

Businesses return to normal, orders are delivered one after another

After the Spring Festival, after experiencing the episode of the epidemic, most of the enterprises have fully started work and returned to normal, and the operating rate has gradually increased. Entering the traditional peak season of March, the orders received by trading companies are gradually recovering and rising steadily. Through in-depth enterprise investigation, we found that most manufacturers currently receive orders with small orders, and there is still a lack of large orders. Although there is a lack of large orders, the overall executable orders of enterprises can be maintained until the end of March.

Mr. Hu, a major imitation silk trader, said: "Recently, orders have been delivered one after another, and the market has basically returned to normal. It is ok to receive orders, and it is still mainly imitation silk. However, some dyeing factories still have a lot of goods and need to queue up, resulting in The delivery time is a bit long, and it will not be until the end of March."

Manager Wang, a trading company that sells raw materials, also said: "The orders are being delivered one after another recently, and the orders are ok, mainly elastic fibers, such as T400, sph and other raw materials are the most popular. In terms of downstream weaving enterprises, knitted fabrics are better and larger. Some manufacturers will be rushing orders before May Day."

Geopolitical factors disrupt market orders

After the Spring Festival, Russia-Ukraine relations once became the focus of the market, and became the dominant factor in crude oil and raw materials. The tension between Russia and Ukraine has affected the textile market and has become a matter of great concern.

It is understood that the current market's foreign trade orders are generally weaker than domestic sales orders. As we all know, before the Spring Festival, foreign trade orders have improved significantly, and once became a hot spot in the market. But after the start of the year, the upward momentum has weakened, and it seems to have returned to the calm of last year.

Manager Wang, who sells raw materials, said: "Foreign trade orders are basically made of regenerated fibers, which is a hot spot in recent years. However, the current order situation is not very satisfactory, worse than last year. It is mainly affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war, rising crude oil and costs. It has become higher, profits have fallen, and foreign customers feel that the situation is unstable so they have been watching.”

At present, the global situation is tight, and the uncertainty and volatility of the operation of the textile industry may be intensified due to the impact of the demand landing full of variables and the increase in peripheral energy prices. Affected by this, clothing sellers are unable to place orders, and it has become a normal phenomenon to wait and see for a long time. Therefore, the number of orders received by downstream fabric trading companies has decreased, and the atmosphere of receiving orders has weakened.

Sea freight "high fever", customers continue to wait and see

Of course, some companies said that the situation in Russia and Ukraine has little impact on orders. The most important reason is that there are not many foreign trade orders, so naturally there is not much impact. There are few foreign trade orders, still affected by the decrease in terminal demand, the general environment has not been improved to a limited extent, and the foreign trade market is difficult to truly improve.

Mr. Hu, an imitation silk trader, also said that foreign trade orders were not as good as at the end of last year, and the order volume had declined. Mainly because the sea freight is still rising, the price is outrageous, and most overseas customers cannot afford this cost. In addition, overseas demand has a greater impact on the foreign trade market.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the price of sea freight has risen steadily, and the "fever persists", which has a great impact on foreign trade enterprises. It is understood that sea freight has generally risen globally, and the China-US and China-Europe routes have increased by nearly 10 times, and it has also increased by more than 3 times globally. Such crazy sea freight has become a big mountain blocking the foreign trade market.

It is difficult to increase the price of fabrics, and corporate profits are lost

As the golden third is approaching, whether there is a spring order in the downstream and whether the price of grey fabrics can be raised has become a more eye-catching thing. Enterprises all said that the order volume is small, and it is difficult to raise the price of conventional products. The increase in spring and summer fabrics is generally within the range of 2-3 wools.

Mr. Wang, a raw material trader, said: "The price of yarn has risen recently, mainly because of differentiated products. Conventional products are not good. Now the market has many small orders and few large orders, and the inventory is very low. This year's spring and summer fabrics are also a lot of Consumed last year and the previous year, so the demand is still difficult to improve."

Mr. Tang, who is mainly engaged in elastic fabrics, told the editor that with the rise in the prices of raw materials and grey fabrics, the prices of fabrics have also been raised to 0.1-0.2 yuan/meter, but the profit margin is still not large.

"The price of grey fabrics has risen, 0.1-0.2 yuan/meter, but the price of fabrics cannot rise." Mr. Hu, a trader of artificial silk, expressed helplessness.

Raising prices seems to be more difficult for downstream companies than reaching the sky. Although this statement is an exaggeration, it is indeed difficult. Upstream raw materials, under the strong support of crude oil cost, began to rise, but downstream demand was not strong, and weaving companies were selling grey fabrics at low prices. At present, the mismatch between upstream and downstream will continue. Under the single-handed control of the big brother of crude oil, the price difference between upstream and downstream raw materials will only become wider and wider.

Summarize

In terms of the market outlook, the opinions of enterprises are not much different, and they are mainly pessimistic. Whether foreign trade can improve is still an important factor affecting the market.

Mr. Zhang, a trader of women's clothing fabrics, predicts: "Now there are many small orders, all of which are based on proofing. The terminal is still digesting last year's clothing inventory, and I am not too optimistic about Jinsan."

Mr. Tang of elastic fabrics also expects that the traditional peak season will not be as popular as he imagined, but there will still be some orders released, and there will be some improvement.

Hai'an County Qinfeng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. specializes in production and sales:polypropylene staple fiber, Polyester Staple Fiber, functional polypropylene short fiber, functional polyester staple fiber, hydrophilic polyester staple fiber,  polypropylene, PP staple fiber, polyester staple fiber.