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[Crude oil prices rise, but raw materials are trapped in inventories]
Release date:[2024/4/2] Read a total of[85]time

March and April this is the traditional peak season of the textile market, upstream crude oil prices rose all the way, the downstream textile industry is also a busy, but the performance of the polyester market is some big surprise. Why is this happening? Let's take a look at the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain as a whole.

Upstream: crude oil prices, raw materials are trapped in inventory

In terms of crude oil, the recent geopolitical situation is tightening, and the good news that OPEC+ may continue to reduce production is added, and international oil prices continue to rise.

On March 28, international crude oil prices soared, the United States WTI crude oil futures rose 2.2%, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.9%. Crude oil prices have risen significantly recently, rising for three consecutive months, up about 14% since the first quarter, and the largest quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2023.

PTA spot pressure at the PTA end is still there, although the polyester end load remains high, but its production and sales are still to be improved, while two sets of PTA new devices are about to be put into production, it is expected that the production capacity will be released next month, and the two sets of devices for early parking and maintenance will resume stable operation next month, although there are other PTA devices for maintenance plans, but the overall supply will be improved. PTA supply and demand side did not show good support.

In MEG, MEG devices are being repaired successively, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are prepared for the expectation of device maintenance, so the extent of the mismatch between supply and demand in recent months may not be as expected in the manifest inventory of the port. At the same time, the import volume has rebounded, the port is difficult to further significantly go to the warehouse in the short term, and the price rise is insufficient. However, from the long-term perspective, the essential reason for the improvement of MEG valuation center is because the lowest stage of the industry supply and demand pattern has passed, and the current port inventory is indeed at a neutral low level, so the valuation should not be too pessimistic.

Polyester after the big promotion, polyester filament manufacturers inventory pressure has been relieved, taking into account the current cash flow loss of most models, enterprises to pull up enthusiasm, local price narrow increase. At this stage, the cost of polymerization remains high, the processing fees of polyester filament enterprises are constantly compressed, the overall POY profitability is poor, the DTY profitability level is high, and the situation of the market is difficult to reverse.

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