Since the beginning of this year, we have been talking about the topic of this year's textile market, "The peak season is not booming, the off-season is ahead of schedule". I always feel that the past is the "out of sight" season and the orders received softly.

But have you ever thought that the textile market may now be a peak, and the latter situation will only be worse.

In the process of visiting the market, many business leaders are not willing to admit that their current business conditions are not good, orders are lacking, and profits are falling.

Then there was a contradictory scene of high inventory and high load, but the data would not lie.

Through statistical analysis of the capacity utilization data of the textile industry from the National Bureau of Statistics.

We can clearly see that the capacity utilization rate of the textile industry in the second quarter of each year is high, the third and fourth quarters are low in the year, and the textile industry capacity in the first and second quarters of the past 19 years. The utilization rate has dropped sharply compared with the previous two years, and the upcoming third and fourth quarters will have a low capacity utilization rate for the whole year according to the law.

That is to say, the current production situation of the textile industry is not only bad compared with the previous years, but more importantly, it is still going to a worse future.

Textile market lacks economic environment support

The quality of any industry is inseparable from the trend of the economic environment, and the textile industry is no exception.

Judging from the GDP growth rate announced by the country in the second quarter, the future seems to be less optimistic.

The GDP growth rate in the second quarter of this year has reached a new low, and the quarterly growth rate of GDP has the same pattern as the capacity utilization rate of our textile industry. The first and second quarters are the peaks of the year, and the third and fourth quarters are Go lower.

Then the national GDP growth rate in the third and fourth quarters of the future may be further slowed down, which is even worse for the textile industry that is “hard to help”.

Weaving mills, printing and dyeing factories are under increasing pressure

But if you are in the textile industry, as long as you hear about who has a factory, the primary response is that this is definitely "very profitable, very rich."

In fact, the first two years are also true. A looms in the polyester taffeta weaving factory can have a profit of 100 yuan, and there are countless people holding cash and waiting for goods.

The profit of the dyeing factory is even more abundant. A dyeing factory with about 120 dyeing tanks in Shengze District has a profit of more than 45 million in 17 years. Even if the order is more than 0.4 yuan per meter, it will take more than a month to make it.

But nowadays, the weaving factory and the printing and dyeing factory are producing "with tears" every day.

According to the monitoring of sample weaving companies, the stock of grey cloth in Shengze area has reached 41-42 days. The lack of terminal trade orders has made the weaving mills "bitter", but the price of raw materials has been down, which has diluted some of the production costs and allowed the weaving mills to reduce the price.

However, the raw material side is not "Bodhisattva", and it is not always possible to "send charcoal in the snow."

Recently, PTA ignored the tension of the downstream capital chain and repeatedly saw it between the big rise and the big drop, trying to stimulate production and sales and harvest profits. At present, the price of raw materials is already at a historical low level. It is only a matter of time before entering the upward channel. It was really time for the weaving mills with high stocks to stop production, which might be a good choice.

As the "oligarch" of the textile industry, dyeing factories are affected by environmental protection policies, and the number in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will only decrease.

It is reasonable to say that it should be in an absolute position of "supply less than demand" and firmly grasp the right of price discourse. However, this year's situation has made some dyeing factory owners somewhat confused, and the dyeing fee is completely dare not to rise, even if the dye is super Costs should also be carefully quoted.

According to the person in charge of a dyeing factory, according to environmental protection requirements, the factory has replaced a lot of machines with huge amounts of money, and added a lot of waste water purification equipment, plus security, hazardous, labor insurance, etc., the cost is doubled. rise.

However, the current situation is that more than 100 dyeing cylinders have a 6-70% operating rate of dyeing cylinders a month ago, and these days have dropped to 50%. As for whether the future situation will continue to "deteriorate", I don't even think about it now.

The hardships of traders are still behind

In the off-season, any factory has a feeling of “tiredness”, and most traders without factories can ignore various costs, and now it is easy.

Although the order is not too big, it is still a bit. Orders of tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands of meters are not visible, and orders of hundreds or thousands of kilometers are still everywhere.

More importantly, traders who have always lacked the right to speak in the past can now stand upright in the face of weaving factories and dyeing factories.

The price of grey cloth is not as strong as it used to be. There is no problem with the price of three pieces of grey cloth per meter of 0.1-0.2 yuan.

Dyeing factory dyeing price, only a certain amount of your order has a lot of room to talk, and the production cycle is greatly shortened.

The order volume is not as good as before, but in general it is not difficult. Future orders will continue to decrease, although direct traders have limited strikes, but the reduction or discontinuation of weaving and dyeing factories is a greater blow to traders.

The discontinuation of the weaving mill will result in the lack of ready-made grey fabrics for orders, which will lengthen production time and even lose orders.

The reduction of dyeing tanks in the dyeing plant has already allowed some of the colors to wait in line. If the production is stopped, the impact will be even greater. After all, the number of dyeing plants is limited, and there is not much room for selection.

Compared with the previous years, it is undoubtedly the off-season of Zui.

Think rationally: the economic environment is weak, the factory operating rate is falling, the price of raw materials is rising, and so on. It seems that the future will only be more cruel than now.

But the peak season will not come again, the answer is yes, but the night before dawn is very difficult, many companies, factories do not necessarily adhere to that day, and the remaining few continue to divide the original "cake." Textile people, please be fully prepared!

Hai'an County Qinfeng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. relies on the professional power of single stream, the front-end quality inspection system and perfect quality inspection system ranks among the high-quality enterprise queues in the industry, specializing in the production of short pp, polypropylene staple fiber, polyester staple fiber and Functional polypropylene staple fiber, etc.